Montana, North Dakota, North Carolina and Missouri are too close to call, and all but Montana favor Barack Obama.
Nationally, the race is tightening, and I can't speak to why, save for saying perhaps that it's because undecided voters have finally come to terms with their inner racists. Post-debate polls show Obama as the clear victor from the third debate, and there haven't been any game changers in the mean time, not even small ones, but yet McCain is gaining ground across the country despite him still being McCain, Palin continuing her mediocre quest for lacklustery, and the GOP ticket generally being out-spent by margins unimaginable in previous presidential races, but here's why it isn't any time yet to even think about losing heart.
Taking a quick look at the national map from Pollster.com will indeed show Obama slipping by tiny fractions, but what may not be apparent is the smaller gains he's making along the way.
Sure, the race for Ohio has bounced back now that the Dem cross-state bus tour has ended, but it still remains in Obama's favor by more than a point. Florida has also lost a bit of ground, but it looks all but out of reach for McCain even still.
At the same time Michigan and Pennsylvania, states which McCain only gave up on recenlty, have pulled so far out they're likely impossible to recapture. We're talking double-digits, and important states at that with a combined 38 electoral votes.
But something more surprising has happened along the way. Obama has forced Missouri, North Dakota, Virginia and North Carolina back to swing state status, and each with an edge ranging from a single point (North Dakota) to 6.4 (Republican stronghold Virginia.) That means that, while the national trend may still be shifting towards Grandpa and the Milf, it only takes simple majority to win a state, and Obama's gained ground in that race in ways many thought impossible before, myself included.
So let's look at some more tangible 'good news'. Early voting has already begun, and every vote cast today, while the Obama lead remains solid, can only help the cause. Absentee and early voting is already coming in, and while it's impossible to know who it favors, it's reasonable to think it favors today's polling numbers, which strongly favor Obama. Some more good news is that, with the race tightening, many democrats are finding their second wind and a renewed reason to charge forward with the cause.
You've also got the news of Colin Powell's endorsement, which on the surface may not look like much, but bear in mind that Powell was a vocal supporter of McCain in 2000 before Bush took the nomination, and McCain had even publicly promised him Secretary of State if he won. Not only is Powell a career republican, but a career McCain supporter, and yet he's publicly renounced the old man from Hannoi for a safer, saner, stabler candidate.
Powell's announcement of support is likely to sway all of about 8 undecided voters, but it seems like all 8 of them may be Republican politicians or officials. Just last night Jason Burkins, the chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus of Massachusetts, broke rank with his party and likewise announced his support of Barack Obama, regardless of what hillbillies swear his middle name is, and means.
Burkins is also no fan of Palin, and he's making it known. "In an effort to pander to the female vote and the religious right, he picked a vice presidential candidate with little experience and baffling views on the role of government in the lives of its citizens, the role of religion in education and the role of mankind in the global climate situation. There is something seriously wrong when the evangelicals are excited by a candidate that to everyone else has become a punch line."
By that I imagine he's suggesting she's a bridge to nowhere, and for those of you who saw her "vote present" appearance on Saturday Night Live, you've already seen where that bridge ends, and as pleasing as she may be to the fetishes of old men, it ain't pretty.
Palin did say something interesting and apropos at her all-of-fifteen-words appearance on Saturday Night Live. After Alec Baldwin bent over backwards to make right by his (heartfelt?) insults, she still felt the need to slap him in the face by saying "My favorite Baldwin is Stephen." It's just a line, and clearly she was reading it off the same sort of cue card she's pulled every letter of text from thus far, but it points out in painfully obvious terms what's wrong with her.
Her favorite Baldwin is Stephen. The guy who goes on Larry King espousing end-of-days prophecy, goes to the RNC waving whatever sign the nearest handler puts inhis hands, and makes tiny fortunes from hosting shows like Sci-Fi's "Scare Tactics" strictly on the virtue of him being a Baldwin. Choosing Stephen as America's first-Baldwin not only panders to the radical Christians she honestly and proudly proclaims her place among, but it shows just how out of touch she is with America, facts, and polls. Any pollster will tell you Alec is where you'll find the money, the good looks, and every last ounce of acting talent that clan has... and she's still hitching her wagon to Stephen.
If this woman thinks Stephen is the best Baldwin, then she's just delusional enough to think McCain is the best candidate for president.
But if you're still hankering for another helping of good news, you could go with the overwhelming superiority of the Obama ground and internet games, both of which look stunning by almost any account. We all saw Guiliani draw an applause line by mocking Barack as a "community organizer... what?", but the GOP may be starting to understand the power of getting your supporters energized and rowing in sync. Obama raised more money in September than almost every previous presidential candidate did for his entire run, victor and loser alike... and that's just one month. 3.1 million contributors have put their two-cents in, and it's added up to a pot of gold overflowing in marketing coffers heretofore unseen.
The only thing McCain still has going for him, and the only reason it hasn't been brought up in his ad campaign is because it doesn't include a personal attack against Obama, is all the sicknesses he's suffered and continues to hide. What he needs to point out is that whatever doesn't kill him only makes him stronger, and with the number of things that have chipped away at his mortality over the years, he's got to be the strongest man alive!
This race isn't over, even if the bookmakers in Ireland are paying out on the Obama victory (they've been wrong before on early payouts), but the freight train of inevitability's whistle is blowing, and McCain is stuck on the tracks without an October surprise left to pull. Unless Obama commits murder in the next week, this race is going to become impossible for Johnny Mac to take back, ruining Palin and relegating her forever to the annals of successionist Alaskan trivia.
If you're active, stay active. If you're a McCain supporter, stay your course too, even though there's evidently little energy in it. Keep on keeping on, all y'all. McCain's got the Dems "right where I want them," and I have to say the Dems are pretty pleased with the placement too. We've only got a couple weeks left, so let's buckle down and get this bitch done.
As Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe said, and this isn't just a satirist exercising artistic license, "I'll say what I said back in New Hampshire. Let's go win this fucking thing."
See the constantly updated Poll-Of-Polls maps at www.Pollster.com or better yet, the incomparable www.fivethirtyeight.com.
